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Tropic weather brewing in Gulf, Caribbean

By the CNN Wire Staff
July 5, 2010 -- 9:55 a.m. EDT

New Orleans, Louisiana (CNN) -- A tropical weather system is brewing near the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and two more tropical lows are above the Caribbean Sea, but none of them has a high probability of evolving into a tropical depression or a stronger cyclone within 48 hours, the National Hurricane Center said in its 8 a.m. ET report Monday.

The NHC said a low-pressure system located in the Gulf, about 60 miles southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana, has only a 10 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone before moving inland Monday night or Tuesday. That system is expected to move to the north or northwest at 5 to 10 mph but it's "disorganized" and unlikely to develop further, said the Hurricane Center.

A week after Hurricane Alex marched through Mexico, another tropical system could follow a similar path. The NHC says a tropical wave in the northwestern Caribbean has a 40 percent chance of organizing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. The system is moving northwestward at 15 mph, threatening the Cayman Islands, Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba with heavy rainfall and gusty winds, whether it forms a tropical depression or not, said the Hurricane Center.

And a third, disorganized system hovering above the far eastern Caribbean may dump torrential rain with gusty winds on the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico over the next couple of days, but there's only a 10 percent probability of that tropical wave organizing into a cyclone within 48 hours.