Counting Votes

January 10th, 2012
05:31 PM ET



.. Rebecca Sinderbrand reports.

Why New Hampshire exit polls are worth watching

So a lot of people have been looking past the New Hampshire primary, to the South Carolina cage fight that’s expected to follow. It’s easy to see why: Thanks in part to his semi-home field advantage as the former governor of the Granite State’s next door neighbor, Mitt Romney’s held a double-digit poll lead in every survey this cycle. Some people won’t even bother to take a look at the exit polls heading our way within the next two hours, because they think they know everything they need to about this race. They’ll dump the data-tracking to follow the "Storage Wars" marathon instead.

Those people will be missing out. Here’s why: No matter who comes out on top tonight (and at this point, I haven’t taken a peek at any numbers you haven’t, so trust me: I’m not giving anything away here), there are some unanswered questions heading into the next stage of the race that can’t be answered by the vote count alone. Questions like:

–Where do the late deciders land? Do they flock to the front-runner – or break for an underdog? That could be a clue where the momentum lies as the race heads south.

–Mitt Romney couldn’t seal the deal with middle-class voters in Iowa. And he’s coming off days of attacks designed to put him squarely on the wrong side of the Wall Street-Main Street divide to attract their support. Where will they land tonight? (In other words: does Romney have a Bain problem?)

–Independents are in the mix again today. And they’re essential to Ron Paul’s long game strategy. Can he match his strong Iowa showing among unaffiliated voters – the sort of support he’ll need to sustain to stick around past the first month or two of voting?

Of course, these numbers aren’t infallible. The same entrance/exit poll caveats we gave before Iowa still apply here:

Think of them as a giant focus group: They can give us a partial snapshot of who showed up today in one small part of the country, and what drove their vote. They can show which candidate had the most momentum, by letting us know who late deciders broke for, and some of the factors that may have driven their decision. They can give us our first real clue as to the candidates’ relative strength (or weakness) with key GOP voting blocs like evangelicals and tea party supporters; important demographic blocs like women and seniors; and highly-prized independent voters. And they can give us an initial glimpse of how enthusiastic a candidate’s supporters are – a key ingredient in any successful general election campaign.

First polls close at 7 p.m. ET. Put your guesses for top four finishers in the comments…if you’re right, you’ll get a Twitter shout-out. Also, my profound respect. And the satisfaction that comes with knowing you’ve got a bizarrely deep read on the New England psyche.

Follow Rebecca Sinderbrand on Twitter.

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January 10th, 2012
06:22 PM ET



.. Rebecca Sinderbrand reports.

Inside the numbers: New Hampshire exit poll live blog

7:52 p.m.
It's no surprise Massachusetts resident and 2008 primary candidate Mitt Romney had an advantage on the ground in New Hampshire: 38% of today's Republican primary voters say they were personally contacted by his campaign at some point. But who had the second-best ground game in New Hampshire? It's a toss-up between fellow 2008 candidate Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman, who essentially camped out in the state in the months leading up to today's vote.

The two relative latecomers to the race - Newt Gingrich (who didn't set up his New Hampshire campaign office until after Thanksgiving) and Rick Santorum (who didn't decide to make a real play for the state until last week) - both reached 10% of today's voters. Unsurprisingly, Rick Perry - who decided to skip serious campaigning in the state - reached just 1% of those who headed to the polls today.

7:13 p.m.
Did Newt Gingrich's complaints about unfair attacks from Mitt Romney's camp resonate with New Hampshire's voters? There's evidence they might have: 26% of New Hampshire's Republican primary voters in early exit polls said the former Massachusetts governor was the candidate responsible for the most unfair campaign - enough to earn him a spot at the top of the dishonor roll on that question.

But there's a chance that going negative over those negative ads may have backfired on Gingrich himself: he ran a close second on that question, at 22%. Ron Paul was third on the list, at 17%.

6:53 p.m.
There are two things everyone thinks they know about the 2012 campaign. The first is that the top three priorities for voters of any political persuasion this year are jobs, jobs and jobs. The second: that Republicans are still dissatisfied with their 2012 options.

Think again.

In New Hampshire - where unemployment barely cracks 5%, far below the national average – 6 in 10 GOP primary voters in CNN exit polls say cutting the deficit is a bigger priority than job creation. And two-thirds say they’re happy with the Republican primary field.

6:36 p.m.
Just as in Iowa, nearly half the voters in New Hampshire’s Republican primary (46%) didn’t make up their minds until the final few days of the contest, and roughly 1 in 5 didn’t decide on a candidate until Election Day, according to early CNN exit polls.

What helped those late deciders make their presidential picks? One big factor, as it’s been all year, may have been the presidential debates – two of them held in New Hampshire within the race’s final three days. More than 4 in 5 of New Hampshire’s GOP primary voters say those faceoffs were important to their vote today.

6:22 p.m.
Ladies and gentlemen: We’re not in Iowa anymore.

Last week, 83% of caucus voters described themselves as conservative; 47% said they were “very conservative.” Today, just over half the New Hampshire Republican primary voters in early CNN exit polls (54%) call themselves conservative, and just 21% fall in the “very conservative” category – raising the question of whether the “Massachusetts moderate” attack Newt Gingrich debuted in Iowa might do quite the same damage to Mitt Romney in a contest where roughly three times as many voters describe themselves as moderate or liberal.

Follow Rebecca Sinderbrand on Twitter.